This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). 4) Conditioning of objectives: Reviewing and potentially updating the reference levels, objectives and risk tolerances used to measure the risk, to enable continued formulation of robust management decisions consistent with the anticipated consequences from human pressures and desired management outcomes, in the context of persistent environmental change. How do the results from different profiles compare for a given country. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.05.056, Keywords: risk assessment, climate change, risk conditioning factors, management advice, uncertainty communication, ecosystem-based management (EBM), Citation: Roux M-J, Duplisea DE, Hunter KL and Rice J (2022) Consistent Risk Management in a Changing World: Risk Equivalence in Fisheries and Other Human Activities Affecting Marine Resources and Ecosystems. Ozone develops from the intermingling of urban pollutants including nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), methane and other hydrocarbons. Using transient reference points in a system in transition may not result in consistent or effective risk management (Travers-Trolet et al., 2020), but may be better suited to simulation testing management strategies (Berger, 2019). Understanding Risk | CDC - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Emerging risks from marine heat waves. J. Fish. "In some of their dimensions these follow the inequalities of class and strata positions, but they bring a fundamentally different distribution logic into play". Sci. Many factors contribute to this increase, including increased urban power demand, which drives up power plant emissions, and soaring use of private motor vehicle transport. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239503, FAO (2003). Urban climate emissions include not only CO2, a long-lived pollutant that persists hundreds of years in the atmosphere, but also short-lived climate pollutants, particularly black carbon and methane. Social login not available on Microsoft Edge browser at this time. The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.781559/full#supplementary-material, Anderson, S. C., Branch, T. A., Cooper, A. Conditioning of objectives on a new environmental norm is then required to maintain risk equivalence. [2], According to the British sociologist Anthony Giddens, a risk society is "a society increasingly preoccupied with the future (and also with safety), which generates the notion of risk",[3] whilst the German sociologist Ulrich Beck defines it as "a systematic way of dealing with hazards and insecurities induced and introduced by modernisation itself". The future of ocean governance. Sets of reference levels expressing potential biological, ecological and socio-economic consequences of varying severity are used in fisheries risk frameworks. From 2000 to 2012 the global proportion of people living in slums decreased from 39% to 33% of the urban population, however, the absolute number of slum dwellers grew over this period from 700 million in 2000 to 863 million in 2012. 108, 372384. Modell. Risk assessment and decision analysis in conservation. Determining Risk and the Risk Pyramid - Investopedia The distinction between demonstrated and hypothesised or anticipated effects is important. The impact tells you how much damage the risk would cause to your project. Conditioning of objectives consists of adjusting the reference levels and/or risk tolerances used to measure the risk, considering persistent, directional change in external factors (e.g., socio-economics or environmental and ecosystem drivers) affecting the definition of the potential consequences from human pressures on a resource or ecosystem. For example, we may consider a projected bridge construction that will permanently alter the flow on a salmon river. Advice on Fishing Opportunities. Fisheries have long sought to achieve risk equivalence between current and future stock status by regulating the exposure to fishing pressure with the intent of maintaining risks within acceptable levels. 9, 112. Adjusting the degree of exposure to human pressures (conditioning of exposure) is one pathway to achieving risk equivalence in a changing world. A risk equivalence approach can facilitate the consideration and handling of quantifiable as well as unquantifiable uncertainty in risk evaluation and management (Figure 1). PLoS Biol. 3) Conditioning of exposure: formulating risk equivalent management options that enable objectives to be met at the acceptable risk level, either by (a) estimating and propagating quantifiable uncertainty linked to environmental variables in the assessment; (b) quantifying the same uncertainty in an empirical process parallel to the assessment; or (c) approximating the relative change in risk that can arise from changes in environmental variables considering resource sensitivity and exposure to such variables (i.e., suspected but as yet unquantified uncertainty). In this paper, we illustrate the relevance of risk equivalence for the management of human activities under climate change. Slums and other dense, informal urban neighbourhoods pose challenges for improving sanitation provision insofar as sewer systems will likely be required, but also costly to install within established and densely-populated neighbourhoods. Schindler, D. E., and Hilborn, R. (2015). 77, 15031515. Where management objectives are specified, risk equivalent management options can be formulated considering factors or circumstances that have been demonstrated or hypothesised to affect the risk associated with management decisions. Given the same degree of exposure to the pressure, the risk of resource status being below the limit increases with decreasing data availability and quality or an increasingly variable environment away from baseline conditions (from left to right). Furthermore, urban sprawl is associated with road traffic injury and physical inactivity-related risks including obesity. ICES J. Mar. Effectively maintaining records is vital for modern risk management programs as it enhances transparency, compliance, and informed decision-making. This concerns the delineation of the safe operating space used for providing risk-based advice. Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change. Dynamic risk management for uncertain times | McKinsey The effect is most pronounced in cities characterized by large expanses of urban paved and concrete structures, which absorb radiant heat, and conversely, a lack of reflective or green spaces to effect cooling. The second is used to formalise the review and update of management objectives, reference levels and risk tolerances, so they remain consistent with potential consequences from human activity under new biological, ecological and socio-economic realities. Retrieved from: https://www.sec.gov/corpfin/sample-letter-climate-change-disclosures, Beth is the managing director for the Center for ControllershipTM. 240:105967. doi: 10.1016/j.fishres.2021.105967, Thorson, J. T., and Minto, C. (2015). ICES J. Mar. Some analysis suggests that physical activity in a natural environment can help remedy mild depression and reduce physiological stress indicators. 17, 101125. Athens: UNEP. Fish Fish. Recent estimates also suggest that cities generate 1.3 billion tonnes of solid waste per year, a figure expected to rise to 2.2 billion tonnes by 2025. Bentley, J. W., Lundy, M. G., Howell, D., Beggs, S. E., Bundy, A., De Castro, F., et al. doi: 10.1139/cjfas-2019-0104, Howell, D., Schueller, A. M., Bentley, J. W., Buchheister, A., Chagaris, D., Cieri, M., et al. In everyday life, we are used to facing and managing all kinds of risks, such as slipping on an icy pavement or getting caught in a downpour. Copenhagen: ICES. If not accounted for, this uncertainty alters the risk of biological, ecological and socio-economic consequences from management actions (or lack thereof). A vulnerability assessment of fish and invertebrates to climate change on the Northeast US Continental Shelf. doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsz189, Schickele, A., Goberville, E., Leroy, B., Beaugrand, G., Hattab, T., Francour, P., et al. Components of the risk assessment (risk identification, analysis and evaluation) were adapted from ISO (2018). Similarly, where environmental changes contribute additional uncertainty in the assessment of the state and response of marine resources to human pressures, risk equivalent management options can be identified that allow human activities to continue within acceptable risk levels despite shifting or novel conditions. A., and Alade, L. A. It is applicable to all human activity sectors and can be extended to handle variation and change in economics and governance aspects of management systems, as human societies adapt to change. The latter points to the need for a clear hierarchy of objectives, as this will ultimately determine pathways for achieving risk equivalence in MPA management. Some risks are very likely; others aren't. Major cities on a coastline include Buenos Aires, Argentina; Tokyo, Japan; Cairo, Egypt; Shanghai, China; and New York City, United States. Mar. Hence, a risk equivalence approach can formalise and facilitate the consideration and handling of quantifiable as well as yet unquantified or unquantifiable sources of uncertainty in the risk assessment. Sci. We propose a flexible risk assessment and management framework that incorporates the explicit distinction between hypothesised and demonstrated effects (i.e., quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainty) via the application of risk equivalence. National-level disaster risk profiles provide information on possible losses in future disasters; guide the placement of infrastructure to minimize new risk; inform urban planning and risk reduction measures; and guide disaster risk financing efforts, to name a few. Deciding on a risk-management approach. Similarly, the uncertainty contributed by a changing climate is rarely quantifiable within the timeframes available for providing robust management advice. Risk and Controls Reporting for a Changing Risk Profile 5:442. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2018.00442, Game, E. T., Kareiva, P., and Possingham, H. P. (2013). Risk Evaluation and Biological Reference Points for Fisheries Management. ECFs can have positive or negative values, indicating potential for increases in resource use when conditions are favourable, or decreases when conditions are unfavourable. Depending on the evidence basis for environmental effects, ECFs expressing the change in exposure required to maintain a comparable risk, will be used to formulate risk equivalent management options accounting for yet unquantified, partly quantified or fully quantified and propagated uncertainty linked to a changing environment. Prudent risk management can help banks improve profits as they sustain fewer losses on loans and investments. This would enable investigation and communication of the change in risk that can be expected under alterative assumptions for environment effects, although not solving the problem of inflated variance in mid- to long-term projections. Together, measurable reference levels are used to delimit the safe operating space within which fishery managers can make decisions for maintaining both healthy and economically viable fisheries. Upper reference levels may also be defined as limits for biological and ecological consequences on other species or ecosystem components within a viability kernel/ecosystem approach (Cury et al., 2005). PLoS ONE 11:e0146756. Available online at: https://www.fao.org/in-action/globefish/publications/details-publication/en/c/346126/. Most importantly, even buffers largely based on expert opinion have been demonstrated to be an improvement over the assumption that additional, unquantified uncertainty does not exist (Punt et al., 2012). A risk-based framework that includes a risk equivalence approach in the evaluation of the potential consequences from human . Poor sanitation and lack of access to safe food and water contribute to high prevalence of diarrhoea within slums. Fish. Sci. Frontiers | Consistent Risk Management in a Changing World: Risk Constructive feedbacks on ideas presented in this manuscript and supplementary material were received during the DFO peer review meeting on incorporating climate change in stock assessment advice in May 2018, the DFO Technical Expertise in Stock Assessment (TESA) Workshop on Uncertainty, Risk and Stock Summaries in January 2020, and the peer review meeting on the assessment of northern shrimp stocks in the Estuary and Gulf of Saint-Lawrence, also in January 2020. For example, a management system can define a maximal recurrence or amplitude of environmental deviations into improbable risk space, or maximal incremental change in risk, beyond which a review and update of the reference levels and objectives is necessary for management decisions to remain risk equivalent. Poorly planned or unplanned urbanization patterns represent a major public health challenge. U.S.A. 114, 32523257. Provide stakeholders with the relevant information that conveys the decisions and values of the organization. board of directors has a legal responsibility to maintain policies, procedures, and risk limits tailored to its individual bank's risk profile. Urban energy consumption accounts for about three quarters of global CO2 emissions. Climate change affects the sensitivity and exposure components of risk, and ultimately the consequence meaning of reference levels used to measure the risk. Sci. A changing climate makes the evaluation of human impacts on natural systems increasingly uncertain and affects the risk associated with management decisions. Risk equivalence driving tactical decisions vs risk equivalence guiding when and how to alter risk management frameworks. Sci. Risk assessment and risk management: a primer for marine scientists. *Correspondence: Marie-Julie Roux, marie-julie.roux@dfo-mpo.gc.ca, Objectives-Based Risk Assessment and Management, Fisheries Management Is Objectives-Based Risk Management, Risk Equivalence: Consistency in Practice, Risk Equivalent Advice for Fisheries in a Changing Environment, Risk Equivalent Advice Beyond Fisheries Management, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.781559, https://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/Library/40976993.pdf, https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.781559/full#supplementary-material, https://www.fao.org/in-action/globefish/publications/details-publication/en/c/346126/, https://www.ices.dk/community/Documents/Advice/Introduction%20to%20Benchmarks%20at%20ICES.pdf, https://www.iso.org/obp/ui/#iso:std:iso:31000:ed-2:v1:en, Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). Taking the risk out of using disaster risk profiles - World Bank Group (404) 639-3286. Failure to recognise that a non-negligible fraction of uncertainty is not captured in standard risk assessment practice, can lead to unexpected and undesirable outcomes from management decisions. Rome: FAO. Ministry of Fisheries (2008). Managing Risks: A New Framework - Harvard Business Review Summary The major risks faced by banks include credit, operational, market, and liquidity risks. Risk Anal. The term is closely associated with several key writers on modernity, in particular Ulrich Beck and Anthony Giddens. Its global warming potential is 84 times more powerful than CO2, although it only persists in the atmosphere for about a decade. in cases where a larger biomass is needed to produce adequate eggs and larvae) or too restrictive (e.g. The Risk Viewer Platform provides a quick snapshot of the risk profiles that are publicly available for earthquakes, windstorms and floods at the regional level, but also provides more detailed information, results and recommendations at the country-level (Figure 1). . doi: 10.1016/S0006-3207(00)00036-7, Harwood, J., and Stokes, K. (2003). doi: 10.1577/C08-041.1. A holistic approach to risk management | McKinsey
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